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Building

What I am building right now

Open any card for the full system architecture, data flows, and failure modes.

Core Principles of the New Era

Plan deep, build fast

An excellent, well-researched plan eliminates entire categories of iteration, bug fixes, and refactoring. Tip: use different AI models to refine, critique, and upgrade plans before writing a single line of code.

Bias for action

Decisions compound. Shipping something imperfect today beats shipping something perfect next quarter. Velocity is a moat.

High agency

Take initiative. Don't wait for perfect conditions. Figure it out, start walking up the learning curve, find a way.

Value lives in sophistication

If a workflow is easy to build, it's already table stakes. True value is unlocked in complex, domain-specific implementations that require deep thinking.

Think in systems

Individual components are easy. The hard part is understanding how they interact — feedback loops, failure cascades, emergent behavior at scale.

Creative cross-domain thinking

The best solutions come from connecting ideas across fields. Game theory applied to product strategy. Finance patterns applied to AI evaluation. Unusual combinations compound.

Creativity is a skill, not a gift

Inspiration matters, but creative thinking is a trainable muscle. Build it through volume, iteration, and exposure to adjacent fields. Prototype fast, test widely, refine relentlessly.

Think strategically

Think a few steps ahead based on what is likely coming. Have a clear vision with defensible conviction about where things are going, then move early.

The Signal Map

What the people building these systems actually believe, cross-referenced with data trends. Click any category to see the chronological timeline.

Predictions

Specific, dated, falsifiable. The point is to be wrong in public so the thinking improves.

01

AI coding tools will produce production-quality code 10x faster than today with dramatically fewer bugs — making a single developer as productive as a small team.

Made Feb 2026By December 202690%
WRONG IF:AI coding tools show only incremental improvement (~2-3x), or bug rates remain comparable to human-written code.
02

Humanoid robots will be able to perform most physical tasks humans can perform, using fast vision-based learning models for rapid skill acquisition.

Made Feb 2026By December 202750%
WRONG IF:Humanoid robots remain limited to narrow, pre-programmed tasks and cannot generalize to novel physical environments.
03

AI models will be systematically optimized to make new medical and scientific discoveries, with the pace of discoveries accelerating. The limiting factor will be human capacity to actually run the physical experiments.

Made Feb 2026By December 202760%
WRONG IF:AI-driven discovery remains limited to hypothesis generation without validated novel findings, or physical experiment throughput is not the binding constraint.
04

AI-powered digital fraud (deepfakes, voice cloning, autonomous scam agents) will explode in 2026, with losses to fraud increasing 3-5x over 2025 levels.

Made Feb 2026By December 202685%
WRONG IF:AI-related fraud losses remain at or below 2025 levels, or effective countermeasures contain the growth.
05

As new models start approaching and exceeding AGI-level capability, frontier labs will gatekeep access — keeping the most powerful models restricted internally or to select partners while offering weaker variants publicly, creating a widening two-tier AI ecosystem.

Made Feb 2026By December 202750%
WRONG IF:Frontier labs continue releasing their most capable models publicly via API, or open-source models remain within 90% of frontier closed models on standard benchmarks.
06

LLM benchmarks will become increasingly less relevant as a measure of real capability. Subjective usefulness of AI models in everyday professional tasks — how much they actually help you get work done — will be the metric that matters.

Made Feb 2026By December 202780%
WRONG IF:Benchmark performance continues to strongly correlate with real-world utility, and no alternative evaluation frameworks gain meaningful adoption.
07

The cost of reasoning per token will continue to decline dramatically, but the actual price of AI services will continue to rise. Jevons paradox: as unit costs drop, demand explodes faster than supply can keep up, driving total spend higher.

Made Feb 2026By December 202680%
WRONG IF:AI service prices decline in line with cost-per-token improvements, or demand growth does not outpace supply expansion.
08

AI-generated content (text, images, video, audio) will become indistinguishable from human-generated content and will start becoming ubiquitous across media, marketing, and professional communication.

Made Feb 2026By December 202770%
WRONG IF:Reliable detection methods keep pace with generation quality, or AI-generated content remains noticeably different from human output in most domains.
09

The majority of enterprise software companies will ship AI agent features as core product capabilities, not add-ons. Companies without an agent strategy will lose market share measurably.

Made Feb 2026By December 202775%
WRONG IF:AI agents remain primarily standalone tools or developer features, and fewer than 50% of top enterprise SaaS platforms ship native agent capabilities.
10

At least one major geopolitical crisis or international incident will be directly attributed to AI systems — whether through autonomous decision-making, AI-generated disinformation at scale, or AI-enabled cyberattack.

Made Feb 2026By December 202865%
WRONG IF:No internationally recognized incident is primarily attributed to AI systems by credible reporting.

Stack & Tooling

Build Path

A practical path from curiosity to shipping useful AI products.

01
Start Vibe CodingWeek 1

Don't just write code—direct it. Use Claude Code or Antigravity. The intuition from actual usage is worth more than any course.

Claude CodeAntigravity
02
Understand the full stackWk 2-3

Learn APIs, tokens, context windows, system prompts, and structured output. But also understand the SDLC: version control, hosting, CI/CD, databases. Use coding assistants to help you along — even send them screenshots when you're confused. That's how you learn fastest.

Anthropic APIVercel AI SDKGitHubClaude Code
03
Ship a web applicationWk 3-5

Start with a web app. The gap between 'works on my machine' and 'people use this' is where all the learning happens. Pick a real problem, build a Next.js or React app, deploy it, and put it in front of users.

Next.jsVercelDockerGitHub Actions